Thanks for the recommendation. I'm more interested in NTIP due to its cash/cheapness, rather than it being an IP name, but I'll definitely check out IMMR as well.
Nice writeup. I've followed NTIP for awhile as well. Any guesses on the valuation of Iliad following the $115m financing? I've run some AI-assisted averages based on other similar financings and I believe NTIPs diluted stake may be valued at $20-30m. I think the BZPE1 TAM is so large though that there could have been a higher valuation. I think we may get a disclosure in subsequent events on NTIPs 10-K coming out in next 1-2 weeks. If not it should be in the Q1 10-Q. I think NTIP shares are a bargain at the moment
With a lot of caveats, I have estimated that the ILiAD stake could be worth $25-$50mm to NTIP (assuming a 5% stake) with more conservative estimates, and maybe as much as $100mm in the most optimistic scenario I can imagine.
I agree there is a long tail on potential valuation. the roster on the cap raise looks impressive. RA Capital has taken many bios to IPO. The unnamed global pharma co could be Glaxo or Sanofi , the leaders in DTaP vaccines. I wish NTIP had been more aggressive on buybacks last couple years but I think its probably easier said than done given liquidity.
I'm torn on the the buybacks. I think because they currently aren't generating cash from operations, I am more okay with them foregoing buybacks and returning cash via dividends; the dividend helps with the opportunity cost while shareholders wait for a catalyst to materialize. I agree the valuation is cheap enough that buybacks would have also made sense though.
I didn’t mind foregoing heavier buybacks as much when short term rates were higher on cash and we had less certainty with Iliad. Assuming a conservative $20m value on the Iliad stake + $37m cash/securities equal to about $57m tangible book while we trade at a $34m market cap. So we are at 34/57 = 0.6 x TBV maybe. Some theoretical serious value accretion to be had on buybacks, plus you incrementally reduce dividend outlay. There is a large holder heinemann that has been reducing stake every year for awhile now. 1.34m shares left. I’d like to see NTIP take out that overhang. Probably wont happen but I’d do it.
An interesting writeup.
If you want another possibly interesting IP situation,
you might take a look at IMMR.
Thanks for the recommendation. I'm more interested in NTIP due to its cash/cheapness, rather than it being an IP name, but I'll definitely check out IMMR as well.
IMMR also has a substantial pile of cash and an interesting security position in BNED.
What is their current cash balance now? It looks like they haven't filed a 10-Q since early 2025.
Their financials are a bit confusing,
mostly because they own so much of BNED that
they have to consolidate BNED's results.
The reason they haven't filed a 10-Q recently
is also because of this - BNED discovered an
accounting problem that delayed their filings,
therefore also delaying IMMR. However it looks
like the BNED problem is close to resolution,
and didn't find a major issue:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1634117/000163411725000041/exhibit99120250503q425earn.htm
In reality, I believe their position in BNED
doesn't expose them to losses beyond those
caused by the fluctuation in their investment;
I don't think they are liable for BNED's liabilities.
The cash and investments position as of the last 10-Q
(Q ending 1/31/2025) looking at the unconsolidated
Immersion balance sheet, is:
$68.5M cash, $76.2M current investments,
$44.1M noncurrent investments, $6.1M long term deposits,
for a total of $194.9M vs. around a $212M market cap.
Current cash is unknown, but hopefully soon will be ...
Actually you can get a floor for the cash and securities position as of 9/30 from the 13F -
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/000092189525-003083/0000921895-25-003083-index.htm
This reports positions of $162M in securities, not including whatever they're holding in cash and equiv ...
Very bullish for NTIP: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260209017075/en/ILiAD-Biotechnologies-Announces-%24115M-Oversubscribed-Series-B-Financing-to-Advance-BPZE1-Pertussis-Vaccine
I might have to restart a position here. First time I have seen them state that they should have Illiad stage 3 trial data by 2027
Nice writeup. I've followed NTIP for awhile as well. Any guesses on the valuation of Iliad following the $115m financing? I've run some AI-assisted averages based on other similar financings and I believe NTIPs diluted stake may be valued at $20-30m. I think the BZPE1 TAM is so large though that there could have been a higher valuation. I think we may get a disclosure in subsequent events on NTIPs 10-K coming out in next 1-2 weeks. If not it should be in the Q1 10-Q. I think NTIP shares are a bargain at the moment
With a lot of caveats, I have estimated that the ILiAD stake could be worth $25-$50mm to NTIP (assuming a 5% stake) with more conservative estimates, and maybe as much as $100mm in the most optimistic scenario I can imagine.
I agree there is a long tail on potential valuation. the roster on the cap raise looks impressive. RA Capital has taken many bios to IPO. The unnamed global pharma co could be Glaxo or Sanofi , the leaders in DTaP vaccines. I wish NTIP had been more aggressive on buybacks last couple years but I think its probably easier said than done given liquidity.
I'm torn on the the buybacks. I think because they currently aren't generating cash from operations, I am more okay with them foregoing buybacks and returning cash via dividends; the dividend helps with the opportunity cost while shareholders wait for a catalyst to materialize. I agree the valuation is cheap enough that buybacks would have also made sense though.
I didn’t mind foregoing heavier buybacks as much when short term rates were higher on cash and we had less certainty with Iliad. Assuming a conservative $20m value on the Iliad stake + $37m cash/securities equal to about $57m tangible book while we trade at a $34m market cap. So we are at 34/57 = 0.6 x TBV maybe. Some theoretical serious value accretion to be had on buybacks, plus you incrementally reduce dividend outlay. There is a large holder heinemann that has been reducing stake every year for awhile now. 1.34m shares left. I’d like to see NTIP take out that overhang. Probably wont happen but I’d do it.
They do have plenty of cash yet to do so, and I wouldn't be opposed to that either.